BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2018/16

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook sees Russian GDP growth slowing next year to 1.5 %, which is in line with the IMF's estimate of Russia's long-term growth potential. According to the IMF forecast, Russia and South Africa will experience some of the lowest growth this year and next among economies that have been generally regarded as emerging economies. The IMF forecasts China's economy will grow by 6.6 % this year and 6.4 % next year. The Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.4 % this year and 7.8 % in 2019.

The IMF expects that the global economy will grow by 3.9 % this year and next. Thus, Russia's share in the global economy will continue to diminish. Using market exchange rates, Russia's share of global GDP is just 2 % this year, well down from its peak share of about 3 % in 2012−2013.

The IMF reports that per capita GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) was about $27,800 in Russia last year, or e.g. 63 % of Finnish per capita GDP. Russian living standards soared before the 2008 global financial crisis, but since then have converged on higher-income economies at a much slower pace. In recent years, the gap in living standards has actually widened, for example, with EU countries.

Growth forecasts for Russian GDP, 2018−19, %