Rosstat’s latest batch of economic figures show Russian GDP contracted by 3.7 % y-o-y in the third quarter. The preliminary estimate of 3Q drop in GDP was 4 %.
With the new quarterly data and revision of older figures, path of the seasonally-adjusted quarterly GDP was altered considerably. Earlier figures had Russian GDP contracting in the second quarter by 1.9 % q-o-q. Now the 2Q drop was a stunning 5.2 %. The combined impact of war and sanctions was thus larger and more immediate than previously thought. In the third quarter, however, Russian GDP grew by 0.4 % from the previous quarter. In addition, the 2020 GDP figures, which include the Covid Recession, have changed considerably under the latest revision. Traditional seasonal-adjustment methods do not always reflect the full impacts of major external shocks. This year’s seasonally adjusted GDP figures will likely be further revised as Rosstat continues to process its economic data.
The trends in production branches that contribute to GDP have been quite varied. For example, wholesale and retail sales contracted by 19.3 % y-o-y in the third quarter, while the transportation sector shrank by 4.1 % and manufacturing by 2.4 %. Construction activity was up by 6.6 % and agricultural output rose by 5 %.
Revised quarterly GDP figures released this month have significantly altered the GDP growth trend reported for 2022
Sources: Rosstat and BOFIT.