BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2018/04

Updated forecasts from the IMF and World Bank expect Russian GDP growth to reach 1.7 % this year. The Central Bank of Russia sees similar growth. The January Consensus Economics forecast is a bit higher. In general, major institutions have raised their outlooks from last summer by several tenths of a percent on higher oil price assumptions. The oil price climbed by about 25 % last year from 2016, averaging about 53 dollars in 2017. While the IMF and World Bank expect a clearly higher average oil price this year, the CBR forecast oil price assumption is a bit more cautious. The Russian economy ministry says GDP grew by 1.4–1.8 % last year.

Global economic growth is generally expected to accelerate. The forecasts see the Russian economy growing slower than nearly all other CIS countries, Europe's advanced economies, the US, and among relatively large economies, e.g. Poland, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico.

Russian GDP growth forecasts, 2018–2019

Sources: IMF, World Bank, CBR and Consensus Economics.