BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2017/09

Rosstat's 2015 figures for GDP production components were revised upwards earlier this winter, and the 2016 figures were less negative than expected. Both outcomes foreboded changes also in industrial output figures. The new figures show that total industrial output fell by less than 1 % in 2015, rather than by over 3 % in previous figures. The 2016 growth figure was corrected slightly upwards to 1.3 %. The new figures also show seasonally adjusted industrial output returned to growth in mid-2015 rather than in 2016.

The change in manufacturing output figures for 2015 was very large (from a decline of 5.4 % to a drop of just 1.3 %). 2016 growth was adjusted upwards to a half per cent. The output growth of mineral extraction industries, which includes the oil & gas sector, rose slightly to 0.7 % for 2015 and to 2.7 % for 2016. Revised data for the various industrial branches are yet to be published, as well as for the years before 2015.

Rosstat said the adjustments in its industrial figures reflect the adoption of new branch and product classifications (harmonised to EU classifications), improved product baskets, a broader application of price deflation according to UN recommendations, as well as more accurate production data on most important products. Going forward, changes in data for other sectors of the economy may also arise.