Roman Lysenko (National Bank of Ukraine): Nowcasting GDP growth using business survey data
Real GDP growth is commonly used by central banks as the key input into their core models that provide long-term macroeconomic forecasts. In assessing the near-future economic conditions, however, policy makers face the problem of getting an accurate early estimate of the real GDP growth as it is released with substantial delay. For this reason, central banks devote considerable resources in developing reliable statistical models for GDP growth nowcasting using business survey data as this information is published earlier. Existing studies on business survey data find statistically significant relationship between current quarter GDP growth and business expectations. The paper is devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results for the short-term forecasting of economic development. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development are examined. We found that Business Expectation Index (BEI) in Ukraine reflects mainly the current economic development and there is a significant direct relationship between the BEI and current quarter GDP.
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