BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2022/35
Since March, the value of Finnish exports to Russia has fallen to about half of pre-invasion levels. After a massive drop in April, however, exports recovered slightly. For the first half of this year, Finnish exports to Russia were down by 23 % y-o-y. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, i.e. March-June, Russia’s share of Finnish exports fell to less than 3 %.
The value of Finland’s imports from Russia has also fallen by about half in recent months from pre-invasion levels. Measured by volume, many crucial import goods such as crude oil and petroleum products has contracted even more, but the value of such imports has been sustained by high prices. Indeed, the value of Finland’s imports from Russia was up in January-June by 24 % y-o-y. Russia accounted for 7 % of Finnish goods imports in March-June.
EU exports to Russia in March-June were down by about 50 % from pre-invasion levels. The European Commission reports that sanctions imposed on EU exports to Russia cover about 28 % of all EU exports to Russia. The overall value of EU imports from Russia actually increased slightly during the period on soaring commodity prices after the invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission estimates that the current EU sanctions regime on Russian imports applies to 51 % of EU imports from Russia.
Some of the sanctions now in force had yet to enter into force in June. For example, the restrictions on imports of timber and wood products only entered into force in July and the ban on coal only in August. The import ban on crude oil enters into force in December, while the ban on importing petroleum products is set for February 2023.
Finland’s goods trade with Russia has declined by about 50 % since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine
Sources: Finnish Customs, BOFIT.