BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2018/25

Despite higher oil prices, Russian GDP forecasts have been revised down by many institutions lately. E.g. the World Bank's recent Russia forecast lowers its GDP growth outlook for this year by 0.2 percentage points. In addition to a weaker-than-expected growth in the early months of this year, the downward revision reflects the latest round of sanctions imposed by the US at the beginning of April. They are expected to increase uncertainty about the Russian economy.

Alexei Kudrin, chairman of Russia's Accounts Chamber and former finance minister, said in a recent interview that sanctions could impede growth by 0.2−0.3 percentage points. Several international banks also cut their 2018 Russian forecasts last month. The CBR's latest GDP growth forecast, however, was unchanged from March, even if the central bank slightly lowered its outlook for fixed investment growth.

Forecasts of Russian GDP growth, %