Most recent GDP growth forecasts agree with China's official growth targets

The IMF this week released its updated outlook for the global economy. The IMF expects Chinese growth to reach 6.7 % p.a. this year and fall to 6.4 % next year (slightly higher than its earlier forecast). Several other major institutions have also upgraded their forecasts recently, with the consensus now around 6.5 % (see table). China's official goal of doubling GDP between 2010 and 2020 requires average GDP growth of about 6.5 % p.a. Most of the forecasters, including the IMF, note that the risks associated with China's debt-fuelled high-growth strategy continue to accumulate. Without the government propping up the growth, the natural pace of growth of the Chinese economy would be slowing due to such factors as a contracting workforce, ongoing structural reform of the economy and the fact that most of the easy productivity gains have already been taken.

Selected GDP forecasts for China, %