BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly 2017/30

The IMF this week released its updated outlook for the global economy. The IMF expects Chinese growth to reach 6.7 % p.a. this year and fall to 6.4 % next year (slightly higher than its earlier forecast). Several other major institutions have also upgraded their forecasts recently, with the consensus now around 6.5 % (see table). China's official goal of doubling GDP between 2010 and 2020 requires average GDP growth of about 6.5 % p.a. Most of the forecasters, including the IMF, note that the risks associated with China's debt-fuelled high-growth strategy continue to accumulate. Without the government propping up the growth, the natural pace of growth of the Chinese economy would be slowing due to such factors as a contracting workforce, ongoing structural reform of the economy and the fact that most of the easy productivity gains have already been taken.

Selected GDP forecasts for China, %