Russia’s third-quarter exports and imports figures fall to 2010 levels

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/42

Preliminary balance-of-payments figures from the Central Bank of Russia show earnings on exports of goods and services fell yet further in the third quarter. Export earnings on-year were down by over a third (25 % in euro terms), sinking to a level last seen five years ago. Low export prices have caused export revenues to sag in the past year, with the export values of crude oil and petroleum products hit hardest. Earnings on gas exports recovered from a deep slump of over a year, but were still historically low. The slide in other export earnings accelerated.

The contraction in spending on imported goods and services in the third quarter continued at the same pace as earlier this year. The value of imports was down by 35 % y-o-y (over 20 % in euro terms), which meant that spending on imports plunged to levels not seen since 2010. Goods imports were down nearly 40 % in dollar terms (25 % in euros), while service imports fell 30 % y-o-y (15 % in euros). Tourism spending was down by nearly a fifth in euro terms.

The goods trade surplus has shrunk this year, but the current account surplus has been supported by a reduced services trade deficit and a decline in private sector payments of dividends and interest abroad. In line with seasonal variation, the current account surplus was relatively small in the third quarter. The cumulative current account surplus over the most recent four-quarter period (4Q14–3Q15) remained at just under $65 billion whereas in relation to GDP it increased to nearly 5 %.

Russian trade in goods and services; current account balance
201542r1.png
Source: Central Bank of Russia.

Show weekly Review 2015/41 Show weekly Review 2015/43