BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/43
Agriculture typically makes its biggest contribution to GDP in the third quarter, so the notable rise in agricultural output in August and September helped brighten the economic growth picture overall. Thanks to the good September performance, economy ministry figures show mild seasonally adjusted 3Q GDP growth from the previous quarter, even if the 3Q GDP fall was 4.3 % y-o-y.
The on-year drop in fixed investment in September was smaller than during the summer. In contrast, the volume of seasonally adjusted retail sales continued to contract in September, falling over 10 % y-o-y. The slump in retail sales of non-food goods deepened, while retail food sales have also been down 9–10 % y-o-y since spring. Rosstat also reports that sales of services to households this year have contracted slightly less than retail sales. At the same time, Russian tourism abroad, which accounted for about 5 % of private consumption in 2014, has shown a significant decline. GDP demand figures show total volume of private consumption in the first half was down nearly 9 % y-o-y.
Consumption suffered in August and September as seasonally adjusted real household incomes continued to contract. Uncertainty about the future has prevented bank borrowing of individuals from turning to rise, while the savings rate has remained quite substantial.