BOFIT forecast for Russia projects GDP growth of less than 4.5% pa in 2011–2012 and below 4% in 2013. The oil price is assumed to decline only slightly during the forecast period. Imports have revived faster than forecasted. Import growth is expected to reach almost 20% this year before slowing to less than 10% pa in 2012–2013. The Russia forecast is surrounded mostly by downward risks. The global economic situation involves the risk that prices of oil and Russia’s other export commodities might decline. Global uncertainty may make Russian consumers cautious and increase uncertainties felt by investors.
 
Chinese economic growth has slowed this year in line with expectations as lending has been tightened to curb inflation. Despite the slowdown, growth in China will remain strong. BOFIT projects the GDP will grow 9% this year and about 8% pa in 2012–2013. For continued favorable development in China, a precondition is to avoid exacerbating the situation in China’s major export markets in Europe and the United States. Managing the hidden problems that the Chinese real estate and financial sectors conceal requires robust economic growth to continue.

BOFIT Forecasts can be found here.

Additional information
 
  • Senior Economist Vesa Korhonen, +358(0)10 831 2834 / vesa.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia)
  • Senior Economist Jouko Rautava, +358(0)10 831 2280 / jouko.rautava(at)bof.fi (China)
  • Head of BOFIT Iikka Korhonen, +358(0)10 831 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi (Russia and China)
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