Ville Kaitila (ETLA): GDP growth in Russia: Different capital series and the terms of trade
Russia experienced a decade of very rapid GDP growth between 1998 and 2008. There are different academic assessments as to what lies behind that growth boom: total factor productivity or capital investments. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks for Russia tend to lean towards the former answer, while capital services datasets that have recently been made available lean towards the latter. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia in 1995–2012, make some adjustments, and compare the results to the capital services time series using a Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support for the economy. Finally using these tools we construct four possible scenarios for Russia’s economic growth till 2030.
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