Finnish exports to Russia may be closing the bottom

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/22

The value of goods exports in January-March was €600 million, or 14 % less than in the same period a year earlier. Exports were at their lowest quarterly level in 15 years. The contraction in exports has been slowing, however. Exports were down just 6 % y-o-y in March. Product categories such as foodstuffs and metals, which have experienced the worst declines in recent years, even saw growth in March. In 1Q16, Russia was Finland’s fifth largest export market, on par with China which also accounted for about 5 % of exports.

The decline in travel and tourism exports to Russia also seems to have slowed in the first quarter. The number of border crossings was still down by 8 % y-o-y and overnight stays of Russians contracted by 18 %. Last year, Finland’s income from Russian tourists fell by nearly 40 % to under €600 million. Statistics Finland’s preliminary figures, however, show that the combined value of most other Finnish services exports to Russia actually rose last year.

The value of goods imports shrank on-year in 1Q16 by a third to €1.2 billion. Much of the contraction was due to lower oil prices and reduced crude oil import volumes. In contrast, import volumes increased for e.g. many metals and raw timber. Russia accounted for 9 % of Finnish goods imports and was Finland’s third most important import provider.

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