Contraction of the Russian economy slowed this year

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2016/20

Rosstat reports that GDP fell 1.2 % y-o-y in the first quarter. Russia’s economy ministry noted that the impact of leap year blunted the drop. The ministry’s estimate meant that without the leap-year effect, the first quarter fall in GDP would have been about 2 % y-o-y. Moreover, the GDP figure got a small boost from an exceptional increase in Russian crude oil output in the first quarter. However, fresh estimates of Russian oil production this year by Russian and international energy authorities see growth in oil production slowing during the remainder of the year.

After the release of Rosstat’s GDP figure for the first quarter, Russia’s economy ministry estimated that seasonally adjusted GDP contracted 0.2 % q-o-q in the first quarter. Portraying figures reliably is hard, however, due to the fragmentation of Rosstat’s GDP time series. This is because Rosstat is recalculating its GDP statistics moving back through time from the present. The recalculations use methodologies that are based on more updated international recommendations than those applied earlier.

Most of the latest forecasts estimate Russian GDP will shrink 1.2‒1.3 % this year. The economy ministry’s projection of a contraction of 0.2 % is among the most favourable. 

Russian GDP growth
201620r1.png
Source: Rosstat.

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