BOFIT Forecast for China 2026–2028 / 2

China’s economic growth this year has outpaced most large economies, but the signs of slowing growth are evident and the structure of growth has become increasingly distorted. Domestic demand growth remains stagnant and the multi-year downturn in the real estate sector continues. At the same time, China’s economy has become even more dependent on exports, high-tech production and capital investment subsidised through industrial policy. Economic growth will continue to slow over the forecast period as domestic demand remains weak and the economy’s growth potential is limited by an ageing population and modest productivity gains. Despite new support measures introduced by government officials, China’s economic policies remain strongly focused on bolstering production and the country’s quest for technological self-sufficiency. Less priority has been given to improving the material well-being of households. This divergence in economic performance not only increases internal and external imbalances, but can further enflame trade tensions.

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For further information

Eeva Kerola, Senior Economist
tel. +358 9 183 2512, eeva.kerola(at)bof.fi

Iikka Korhonen, Head of Research
tel. +358 9 183 2272, iikka.korhonen(at)bof.fi