We expect Russian GDP to continue reviving, increasing by nearly 2 % this year. If the oil price remains near its current levels, growth will slow to around 1.5 % p.a. in 2019 and 2020. While growth in Russia's imports remains fairly brisk, we see the recovery in imports this year slowing substantially from last year's strong rebound and a bit further thereafter. Growth of the economy will remain relatively slow as proper reforms that would support generation of income and growth are not in sight.

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The pace of China's economic growth accelerated slightly last year, with official figures showing GDP growth of 6.9 % p.a. Even if the economic cycle appears on the upswing, growth is undergirded by the government's heavy-handed stimulus policies. Since the Communist Party's National Congress last autumn, the policy stance has tightened and the role of the party has been amplified. As a result, we have slightly boosted our GDP forecast for this year, putting it on par with China's official GDP growth target of "about 6.5 %." Going forward, high growth fuelled by debt will become unsustainable. China's debt-to-GDP ratio is already high and will continue to rise in the forecast period. Thus, we expect growth to slow to a more sustainable level of around 5 % by 2020. Several sources of uncertainty from both domestic and international markets cloud China's economic outlook. Downside risks have increased from our previous forecast.

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For further information

Russia: Senior Economist Vesa Korhonen
tel. +358 9 183 3440 / vesa.korhonen(at)

China: Senior Economist Riikka Nuutilainen
tel. +358 9 183 2518 / riikka.nuutilainen(at)

Russia and China: BOFIT Head Iikka Korhonen
tel. +358 9 183 2272 / iikka.korhonen(at)