Growth of China’s carbon dioxide emissions slowed last year

According to the latest Statistical Review of Energy published by the UK’s Energy Institute (EI), China generated 12.533 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions last year and accounted for 30.7 % of manmade carbon emissions globally. The second- and third-largest carbon emitters were the US and India, which accounted for 5.110 billion tons (12.5 %) and 3.262 billion tons (8.0 %), respectively. EU CO2 emissions last year totalled around 2.59 billion metric tons, or 6,3 % of global CO2 emissions.

While Chinese emissions grew by 1.2 % last year, electricity production was up by 6.4 %. However, the growth in emissions was below the average 1.8 % annual pace of growth between 2014 and 2024, during which time average annual growth of electricity production was also lower (5.7 %). The new data suggest China has succeeded in increasing electricity production from renewable sources to meet rising short-term demand for electricity. China’s energy sector generates 90 % of the country’s carbon emissions, largely because coal-fired power plants still account for over half of the county’s electricity production.

Signs of slowing growth in China’s carbon emissions are also been noted in a recent analysis by the CREA environmental research institute, which find that China’s emissions declined by 1.6 % y-o-y in the first quarter of this year, and by 1 % in the 12 months preceding May. Declines in China’s CO2 emissions in previous years were typically due to major shocks such as the global financial crisis, the collapse of the construction sector, as well as covid lockdowns and other restrictions during the pandemic. The slowing growth in emissions suggest that China for the first time has managed to meet rising demand for electricity by ramping up production from renewables. It is even possible that China’s carbon emissions could decline or plateau over the longer term as the country continues to invest heavily in clean renewable energy.

Under China’s announced emission targets under the Paris Climate Agreement, China commits to hitting its peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. China has also announced in previous years its goal of reducing emissions intensity (ratio of emissions to GDP) to 65 % of the 2005 level by 2030. According to some estimates, however, China has been dragging its feet in meeting this target. The government’s work plan for this year also has no mention of targets for reducing emissions intensity.

Despite a large increase in electricity production, China’s CO2 emissions rose only slightly last year

Sources: BOFIT and Energy Institute