Ukraine will receive significant funding from G7 loan program based on proceeds from frozen Russian assets this year

Ukraine’s largest source of external funding this year will come from the G7’s $50 billion lending programme. Under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) programme, the repayment of loans issued by G7 countries to Ukraine (as well as related fees) are covered by proceeds from assets of the Russian government and Central Bank of Russia held within the EU. Payments from the ERA programme are frontloaded to provide Ukraine’s government budget with access to roughly $39 billion this year. Ukraine’s finance ministry plans to save part of the money for next year. Unlike in previous years, when Ukraine received most of its support in the form of low-interest loans, ERA payments are treated as grants for Ukraine.

Subject to meeting criteria set by the EU, Ukraine will receive up to $11.8 billion from the EU’s Ukraine Facility this year. The amount of support is expected to decrease significantly in 2026 and 2027, and the need for support is also expected to decrease if hostilities can be settled by the end of 2025. Considerable uncertainty surrounds these assumptions, of course.

Foreign support this year should be adequate to cover Ukraine’s public sector deficit

Note: National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts for 2025–2027.

Sources: Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, NBU.