Forecasters slightly improve their Russia forecasts for this year

BOFIT Viikkokatsaus / BOFIT Weekly Review 2015/26

​In May and June, a number of authorities, including Russia’s economy ministry, the Central Bank of Russia, the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD and the EBRD, issued revised 2015 forecasts for the Russian economy. Most forecasts gave a little improved outlooks for the oil price, at or almost at $60 a barrel in 2015. Nearly all, including the Consensus Economics forecast of June, now expect GDP to contract 2.7–3.5 % this year.

Most expect inflation to slow a bit better than in their earlier forecasts, but this has not lead to across-the-board alleviations in expectations of the drop in private consumption. The forecasts of the economy ministry, the CBR and Consensus Economics see private consumption declining around 6 % this year. Estimates of the expected decline in investments have become milder, even if the differences among forecasters remain quite large (e.g. the three above-mentioned forecasts see drops ranging from 5 % to 11 %). The economy ministry and the CBR now foresee the volume of goods and services imported to Russia will not drop by a third in 2015, but rather by 22–25 %.

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