New financial support measures for Ukraine announced; moderate GDP growth expected next year

The EU leaders have just approved a 90 billion EUR financial lifeline to cover Ukraine's financing needs in 2026–2027. The support is provided in the form of an interest-free loan for two years and funded by EU joint debt. As in earlier years, EU funding will continue to play a critical role in Ukraine’s finances.

The IMF and Ukrainian officials also reached agreement on a new Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Talks on the new EFF programme began in autumn 2025. The programme still requires the approval of the IMF’s executive board. The loan disbursements, valued at 8.1 billion USD, are spread over 48 months. As in the past, access to funding depends on Ukraine meeting the criteria for economic performance and progress in reforms that are reviewed every three months.

In the baseline scenario on which the new EFF is based, Ukraine’s funding needs for 2026–2029 amount to 136.5 billion USD, which leaves a funding gap for 2026–2027 (including committed support sums) of 63 billion USD. To date, Ukraine has received 10.6 billion USD through the EFF programme, while the total value of the previous EFF programmes was $15.6 billion. The previous EEF programme was originally slated to end in March 2027.

Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to slow to around 2 % this year. Destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has had particularly harmful impacts on economic growth. Forecasts of Ukraine’s growth prospects for next year range widely: 1.5–5 %. There is obviously a huge amount of uncertainty related to economic development as long as Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine.