Tuesday 1 November 2016
10:30–11:30
Sergey Vlasov (Central Bank of Russia): Fiscal multipliers in Russia
Abstract
The paper covers the theoretical and practical issues related to the estimating of fiscal multipliers for the Russian economy. The analysis of the main determinants affecting the size of fiscal multipliers suggests relatively low effect of fiscal variables on output in “normal times”. Estimation of the government overall revenue and spending multipliers conforms with these expectations as well as with the results available for the emerging market economies and shows the values of -0.39 and 0.30 correspondingly. The necessity to cut budget deficit in the medium-term would have a negative impact on Russia’s GDP growth and the reduction of the government spending as a main source of fiscal consolidation goes in line with the estimates of fiscal multipliers and above all should allow to raise their efficiency.
The paper covers the theoretical and practical issues related to the estimating of fiscal multipliers for the Russian economy. The analysis of the main determinants affecting the size of fiscal multipliers suggests relatively low effect of fiscal variables on output in “normal times”. Estimation of the government overall revenue and spending multipliers conforms with these expectations as well as with the results available for the emerging market economies and shows the values of -0.39 and 0.30 correspondingly. The necessity to cut budget deficit in the medium-term would have a negative impact on Russia’s GDP growth and the reduction of the government spending as a main source of fiscal consolidation goes in line with the estimates of fiscal multipliers and above all should allow to raise their efficiency.
BOFIT seminars
The seminars are open to all economists interested in the subject areas covered.
Please register in advance at bofit@bof.fi or by phone +358 10 831 2268.
Seminars will be held on Tuesdays at 10.30–11.30 unless otherwise indicated.
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